Race strategy and goals

The only reason why I am writing this is because putting it in writing helps me to think the whole thing through. Plus it adds some extra accountability for the race. (Yes, even if only max 4 people read this I will still feel more accountable)

Goal A: (way too optimistic): sub-19:10
Goal B: sub-19:15
Goal C: sub-19:20
Goal D: sub-19:30
Anything above 19:30 should make me just forget about running and move to other things. But I know myself and it will not have this affect on me because I love running way too much.

I have never done this much preparation for a race strategy:) (Although I have not seen the course, only mapped it on mapmyrun and I have no idea how many people will come, last year there were more than 1000 people but a lot of them were walkers and I do not know how it will be organized so maybe there might be some weaving, but I promise I will do my best to start in front)

First 1k should be a very slight uphill. Then next 2.5k slight downhill. And last 1.5k slight uphill. (Well, the profile was in miles and feet so honestly, I have no idea whether uphills are indeed slight or not because my brain can't process it being not in metrics)
My plan is to run around 3:51/k for first 1k (6:09 pace) and then try to pick it up for downhill to 3:48-49 range for next 2.5k. And than just hang on and run HARD for the last 1.5k and do not run slower than 3:52 pace. That would give me sub-19:10 time.

But being as whimpy as I am (and having no idea how to pace myself outside track) that is too optimistic. More realistic would be start at around 3:51, then run 3:50 pace for downhill part and then just try to hang on and not slow down past 3:53 pace. That will give me sub 19:20 time.
According to my work-outs I should be able to run sub-19:20 no problem. And I am going for it!!!

That's the plan. I am going to write this down on a piece of paper so I can revise it before the race starts. Problem is that you do not have public access to grounds where the race is taking place so I cannot check out the course. But I am biking there tomorrow and hope to do the loop on bike so see how it is.
I am also wondering whether there are miles marked on ground or not. I doubt it, but it would be nice in case my Garmin dies half way through. But wait, if it dies I will not be able to see my splits anyway because I am not dorky enough to wear both Garmin and a watch. I cannot wear watch only, because I am a lousy pacer and checking splits only on mile marks will not help me.
I am going to prepare my pacing chart in both k paces and mile paces:)
I am thinking about this too much.
I do not remember the last time I was planning a race this much. It was probably back in high school. And even then I did not run by paces, I just ran as fast as I could.
I have not thought about the marathon this much. I just went there, ran and went home. But it will not work for 5k race, it is too short to correct the mistakes from the first half in the second half.